Every December, the box office turns into a high-stakes relay race: studios sprint to open strong, then pray their movie has the stamina to run through Christmas week and beyond. This year, the baton has clearly landed in blue hands. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” didn’t just arrive—it claimed the season, kicking off the holiday corridor with the kind of momentum that makes every other release instantly feel like counter-programming.
A Big Opening… Even When It’s “Smaller”
Here’s the funny thing about the “Avatar” standard: a weekend that would be a career-maker for most franchises can be framed as modest by comparison. Industry projections have “Fire and Ash” headed for about a $90 million domestic opening weekend and roughly a $340 million global opening—numbers that still scream blockbuster even if they don’t eclipse the previous chapter’s start.
Opening Day Heat: The Numbers That Set the Tone
The weekend trajectory became obvious fast. The film pulled in $36.5 million on opening day, and that figure included a hefty $12 million from Thursday previews—the kind of advance turnout that suggests people weren’t just “curious,” they were committed. Add in the international push—more than $100 million overseas early on, including $17.7 million from China and over $8 million each from France and Germany—and the global engine was already humming.
The Real “Avatar” Trick: It’s Not the Sprint, It’s the Marathon
What makes an “Avatar” run feel inevitable isn’t only the first weekend—it’s the legs. Holiday releases can stretch like taffy: families repeat-view, travelers fill theaters at odd hours, and the calendar itself does the marketing for you. The expectation is that “Fire and Ash” won’t just open big; it can stay big—potentially pushing to a $400 million-plus domestic total and a global finish north of $1.5 billion.
Why This One Could Still Rule 2025
Even with the narrative that it’s opening smaller than its 2022 predecessor, the bigger story is dominance. The projections suggest it’s on pace to become Hollywood’s highest-grossing film of the year and, by year-end, to stand as the second-highest global performer overall, trailing only the Chinese animated juggernaut “Ne Zha 2.” That’s not “slowing down”—that’s owning the scoreboard in a crowded year.
Audience Buzz: Strong Applause, Slightly Softer Than Before
Big franchises don’t just need butts in seats—they need people walking out and telling friends, “You have to see this.” Early signals are solid: an A CinemaScore, a 91% audience score, and a 72% “definite recommend” rating. The only wrinkle? That “definite recommend” number is a step down from the prior film’s stronger mark, hinting that while fans are happy, the movie may not be converting casual viewers into evangelists at quite the same rate.
The Surprise Challenger: “David” Doesn’t Flinch
While Pandora takes first place, the weekend’s quieter plot twist is who’s battling for second. Angel’s “David” came out swinging with a $9.6 million opening day and a projected $25 million weekend from over 3,100 locations. That kind of start signals serious turnout from faith-based audiences and online word-of-mouth—plus the promise of long holiday legs that could carry it beyond what many expected when the release calendar first dropped.
The Thriller Play: “The Housemaid” Finds Its Audience Anyway
In third, “The Housemaid” proves there’s still room for a different flavor of moviegoing during blockbuster season. It earned $8 million on Friday and is tracking toward a $20 million opening weekend from just over 3,000 locations. The audience grade came in softer than hoped, but strong viewer enthusiasm can matter more than critical chatter when you’re selling suspense and star power—especially to people who want something not drenched in epic-scale spectacle.
SpongeBob’s Strategy: A Kids’ Movie That’s Playing the Long Game
And then there’s the family lane, where timing is everything. “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” is estimated at about a $16 million opening, which might look mild on paper—until you remember that its core audience often waits for school break to truly flood theaters. With strong audience reception already in place, the real question isn’t what it does this weekend, but what it becomes once Christmas week arrives and parents start searching for two hours of peace and popcorn.
What This Weekend Really Means for Movie Season
This isn’t just an “Avatar opened big” story. It’s a reminder of how the holiday corridor reshapes the entire market: the giant event movie grabs the crown, while smart alternatives carve out surprisingly sturdy lanes. “Fire and Ash” looks positioned for the kind of extended run that turns “opening weekend” into a footnote—and if the next couple of weeks hold steady, we may look back at this moment as the night the holiday season officially caught fire.
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